Even if you win 55% of your bets, you will come out consistently ahead. This is, however, easier said than done and involves more than just a little reading and checking the injury reports. If Paul the octopus picked every winner in the recent soccer World Cup, picking winning football teams should be just as easy, right? Wrong. If it were that easy, lots of people would be making money and the sports books would have to go out of business. If winning at football betting involves some knowledge, some strategy and, let us face it, a dash of luck, it is because the bookmakers set very tight lines for the games. However, if you keep the following tips in mind, it should improve your chances of winning.
Bet as early as you can. Many of the sports books post their lines as early as they can and some offshore books do this by Sunday afternoon for the following week’s games. If you find a game and odds that you like make sure that there are no serious injury problems for the team that you pick. Bookmakers are not perfect and can make mistakes in setting the line. Pounce early before heavy betting irons out the mistakes.
Concentrate on a few teams. Because knowledge is important, if you concentrate on a few teams, you can build up a substantial amount of knowledge which you can use in making your bets. Also limit your betting to just a few games every Sunday.
Avoid heavy favorites. The crowd loves favorites and will rush to bet on them. However, they are not good choices if you want to maintain your 55% average in winning bets. Even if you do win a few, the payouts will be small. The best strategy is to bet on short priced underdogs because, when you win, you generally make more than you have bet.
Use totals judiciously. Totals set early in the week are generally based on predictions of good weather. In late season games, rain or snow sometimes affects the scoring and a heavy wind almost always keeps scoring down. In these conditions, you would do well by betting the Under
Use yards per play ranking. One method of evaluating teams is to look at the offensive yards gained per play and the defensive yards given away per play. Teams that gain more than they lose end up winning more games. The statistics are easily available and you can calculate the difference with a positive difference being an advantage. The rule of thumb to calculate a points spread from the yardage differential is that every 0.15 yards is worth one point. A differential of 0.60 yards between the two teams is worth four points. As with all betting tools, use your other data and information to confirm your findings.
Don’t avoid teasers. There is a common perception that teasers are a rip-off and therefore best avoided. Under certain circumstances, an NFL teaser which is a two-game parlay bet can make sense.
Pay attention to the injury reports. Read the injury reports carefully to determine what difference it is going to make to the performance of your chosen team. Do not just look at key players because all the guys in the team have to perform at their peak.